At the beginning of each year or planning cycle, healthcare organizations around the world conduct a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis (HVA) to understand their risks for natural, 人为和技术危害. Healthcare vulnerability analyses are risk assessments that ultimately help healthcare organizations identify risk factors and calculate risk scores for specific hazards. The Centers for Medicare and Medical 服务 (CMS) requires healthcare organizations to complete a risk assessment and document any mitigation measures for the hazards identified.
Hazard vulnerability analysis tools identify specific healthcare risk factors in an effort to calculate a risk source score for specific hazards. Though many tools can be used to complete these analyses, Kaiser Permanente’s hazard vulnerability analysis tool is famous for being the “go-to” for healthcare organizations. As updates have been made to the tool over the years, organizations have created modified versions to suit their needs. Some have even expanded its use to other, more specific tools (e.g.(丹佛儿童工具).
We may have a tool in hand and the general knowledge of how to complete it, 但问题依然存在, 彩宝网平台能做到多准确? Jensen Hughes is currently exploring the accuracy of healthcare hazard vulnerability analysis tools, the level of accuracy we can achieve in our assessments, and other tools and techniques the industry can utilize to be more accurate in our analyses.
Engaging with our healthcare partners across the country, we have identified many organizations that “shoot from the hip” on hazard vulnerability risk assessments and provide ballpark probabilities with little data to support their conclusions. At the opposite end of the spectrum are organizations that do a deep dive into the data to truly understand its historical and predictive probability. If the former approach does not meet the spirit of the assessment and the latter is too extensive, 彩宝网平台怎么才能找到路的中间?
Jensen Hughes使用的方法是 德尔菲法, originally developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. The 德尔菲法 is a systematic and qualitative forecasting method that involves the collection of opinions from experts through several rounds of questions. The technique relies on each expert utilizing their specialized knowledge on specific topics to forecast the outcome of future scenarios, 预测事件发生的可能性, or reach a consensus about particular topics.
利用德尔菲技术, a healthcare organization’s emergency management committee conducts a facilitated meeting to identify associated hazard risks. 通过盲目询问, each member identifies their view on the probability and associated risks related to their functional area. Because their opinions remain anonymous, members are prevented from influencing each other.
Conducting a hazard vulnerability and risk assessment is the first and foundational step in any effective 应急准备方案. This blog post is the beginning of a series of articles exploring hazard vulnerability analysis and emergency planning processes in relation to healthcare risk assessment, 知情规划要素, and the accuracy and applicability of the assessment and process. 在下一期中, we will dive into some details on the benefits and drawbacks of specific techniques.
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